Researcher — Prediction Markets

The Role

Event contracts are the least efficient venue we trade — which makes them the most interesting. You will build forecasting models for elections, macro prints, and real-world outcomes, and the market-making logic that turns calibration into P&L.

What You'll Do

• —Build Bayesian ensemble models for real-world event outcomes
• —Design market-making and liquidity provision logic for event contracts
• —Integrate alternative data: polls, order flow, weather, on-chain signals
• —Track and publish internal calibration scores — our only vanity metric

What We Require

• —Strong background in Bayesian statistics or probabilistic ML
• —Python fluency and comfort shipping research-grade production code
• —Demonstrated forecasting skill (academic, professional, or competitive)

Nice to Have

• —Top rankings on Metaculus, GJP, or similar
• —Political science or econometrics background